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Mid-Quarter Newsletter – November 2020

Year-End Tax Planning

Yes, it’s that time of year again: When it starts to get a bit nippy in Southern California and we have to wear long-sleeve shirts with our shorts and sandals. The time of year when things start to get a little cheerier and we look forward to the promise of a new year ahead (especially after 2020). Yes, you guessed it—it’s time for tax planning!

This year has been an eventful one, to say the least. Amid the social, medical, and political turmoil of 2020, there have been two laws passed that may affect your year-end tax-planning: the CARES Act and the SECURE Act (passed a lifetime ago in January). Let’s take a look at some key opportunities in the new laws, as well as some oldie-but-goodie strategies, to see what’s best for you.

  • Maximize your retirement savings
    • Did you turn 50 this year? If so, you’re entitled to a $6,500 catch-up contribution for your 401(k) plan and an extra $1,000 for traditional and Roth IRAs.
    • If you’ve already maxed out your 401(k) contribution, and your company retirement plan allows you to, consider contributing additional funds to your plan on a non-deductible basis. For 2020, the total contribution limit is $57,000 (made up of your first $19,500 employee elective deferral + any employer matching + any additional contributions you make).
    • If you’re over 70.5 and still working, the SECURE Act increased the age limit to contribute to your traditional IRA to 72.
      • Note, though, if you’re considering making a qualified charitable distribution (QCD), making a deductible IRA contribution may reduce how much of the QCD you can deduct.
    • Take advantage of deductions
      • Charitable deductions
        • The CARES Act increased the limit on charitable deductions in 2020 to 100% of AGI for cash contributions made to public charities.
          • Note: contributions made to a private foundation or a donor-advised fund do not qualify as qualified charitable contributions (QCCs) so the 60% AGI limitation for cash would apply.
        • If you don’t itemize deductions, the CARES Act also permits an above-the-line deduction of $300.
      • Consider a Roth conversion
        • If your income is lower this year—either due to COVID-19 and/or the CARES Act waiver of required minimum distributions for 2020—consider doing a Roth IRA conversion since you’ll already be in a lower tax bracket.
        • The SECURE Act requires that IRAs inherited by non-spouse beneficiaries be distributed within 10 years. Mitigate the tax impact on your heirs by converting funds from a pre-tax IRA to a Roth so the distributions to your heirs will be tax-free.
        • If a Roth conversion is appropriate for you, you can pair it with your QCC to offset the income recognized from converting pre-tax funds into a Roth.

If you’re interested in discussing any of the above strategies further, contact your wealth advisory team now. The last couple months of the year can get very busy with tax-planning requests, so processing times can be delayed at brokerage account custodians. If you and your advisor decide that one (or more) of these strategies is right for you, start early to ensure any transactions are processed by year end. The holidays are going to look a lot different this year, so perhaps a silver lining is the opportunity to be more strategic when it comes to another December tradition—tax planning.

Disclosures: This information is presented for educational purposes only. It is not written or intended as financial or tax advice and may not be relied on for purposes of avoiding any federal tax penalties under the Internal Revenue Code. You are encouraged to seek financial and tax advice from your professional advisors before implementing any transactions and/or strategies concerning your finances.

 

Schwab IMPACT Video & Sharkpreneur Podcast

Featuring our CEO, Jeff Sarti

Our CEO, Jeff Sarti, was featured at Charles Schwab’s virtual IMPACT conference. Thousands of investment advisory professionals gathered remotely to learn about how to think differently about the issues that matter most to their practices. This year Schwab highlighted four firms based on the impact they are making in the industry. In a year that has brought so much change, we are honored to be chosen. Watch the video below as Jeff shares his personal thoughts on serving our clients during these uncertain times.

Jeff was also featured on a recent episode of the Sharkpreneur podcast with host Seth Greene, one of the original sharks from the hit TV show Shark Tank. Jeff discusses Morton’s market outlook given the challenging economy and also explains how our three core beliefs drive our business decisions and empower our internal teams.

To watch Jeff’s video from the Schwab IMPACT conference or listen to his podcast with Seth Greene, click below or visit our Insights page on our website.

Links:

Schwab IMPACT video link:  https://mortoncapital.com/schwabimpactvideo/

Sharkpreneur podcast link: https://mortoncapital.com/sharkpreneur-podcast-featuring-jeff-sarti-growing-to-2-billion-aum/

 

What Does “Money Printing” Really Mean?

In recent years, the term “money printing” has become commonplace with investment professionals, economists and politicians. But what does it actually mean? While the specific execution can be highly nuanced and rather complicated, at its core, money printing is when assets suddenly appear on the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve (Fed), which then facilitates the distribution of those assets to privately held banks. Contrary to its name, money printing doesn’t constitute the use of a physical printing press, but, in our electronic world, just requires the push of a button to make digital assets appear.  To better understand what money printing is and why we should care about it, let’s take a look at money printing in action over the last two global economic recessions.

 

Money printing during the Great Financial Crisis (GFC)

To ensure they can meet their obligations, banks must hold a certain amount of cash as reserves. In 2008, according to the FRED economic database, U.S. banks had very low cash levels (only around 3%!), which meant that, as millions of Americans defaulted on their mortgages, banks didn’t have the cash on hand to remain solvent on their own. The Fed stepped in and essentially created “cash” in banks’ accounts with a few keystrokes. The hope at the time was that this move would shore up bank balance sheets and allow them to start lending again to stimulate the economy. While the first objective was accomplished, the higher level of lending activity didn’t materialize, leading many to cite this example as evidence of how money printing was not economically stimulative or inflationary.

 

Money printing during COVID-19

Over the last several months, the financial media has highlighted numerous ways in which banks are now in better shape than in 2008. However, total debt as a percentage of the gross domestic product in the U.S. economy remains very high. High debt levels make the economy fragile to external shocks—COVID was an example of such a shock. As millions of people lost their jobs and businesses struggled to remain solvent, it quickly became clear that this round of money printing needed to channel money directly into people’s pockets rather than shore up the cash reserves of banks.

To provide the economy with trillions of dollars, the government passed a large fiscal package, which included increased unemployment benefits, stimulus checks and paycheck protection loans. To fund these fiscal outlays, the government had to issue even more Treasury securities, which the Fed stepped in to purchase as the buyer of last resort. Unlike during the GFC, money was poured directly into the economy. As a result, the money supply sharply increased.

The real risk of all of this money printing and fiscal stimulus is that there are now more dollars out there chasing the same number of goods. While money printing may not be obviously inflationary in the short term, it’s essentially adding powder to the inflation keg. Just because it hasn’t ignited yet doesn’t mean that all that extra powder won’t ultimately matter. While some investors may choose to ignore this risk, we’ve turned increasingly to real assets such as real estate and gold to protect client portfolios. Money printing may seem like a harmless push of a button, but its prevalence as the stimulative tool of choice for those in charge makes it especially important to understand and monitor.

Disclosure: This information is for educational purposes only. It should not be taken as a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any individual security or asset class. This document expresses the views of Morton Capital and such views are subject to change without notice. Any investment strategy involves the risk of loss of capital. It should not be assumed that MC will make investment recommendations in the future that are consistent with the views expressed herein.

 

Welcome Judy and Cameron

Judy Lee

Private Investments Administrator

Judy Lee came to Morton Capital in March of 2020, after previously working in graphic design, copy editing, and project management for over 20 years. She brings a wealth of experience and organizational skills, having worked in the fields of publishing, product design/manufacturing, corporate/marketing design, and education. Judy graduated with a Bachelor of Arts degree in English from the University of California, Los Angeles. When not at work, she enjoys spending time with her family, collecting children’s books, cooking, watching Dodgers and Bruin sports, and serving at her church.

 

Cameron Meek

Client Service Administrator

Cameron Meek joined Morton Capital in May 2020 as a Client Service Administrator. Cameron is originally from North Dakota, and moved to California to pursue work in the entertainment industry before attending Pepperdine University. She graduated from Pepperdine with a degree in communications. Cameron enjoys spending time at the beach with friends, hiking, and trying new recipes.

 

DISCLOSURE: Your security and privacy protection is important to us. All emails with attachments or the word “secure” appearing in the subject line have been sent with the highest level of security and encryption available to protect your privacy.

Please contact your Wealth Advisor at Morton Capital if there are any changes in your personal or financial situation or any changes in your investment objectives, or if you wish to add, or to modify any reasonable restrictions to our investment advisory services. A copy of our current written disclosure statement (Form ADV Part 2) discussing our advisory services and fees continues to remain available for your review upon request. All e-mail sent to or from this address will be received or otherwise recorded by Morton Capital in accordance with SEC regulations and is subject to archival, monitoring, or review by someone other than the recipient. The information contained in this e-mail message is intended only for the personal and confidential use of the recipient(s) named above. If the reader of this message is not the intended recipient or an agent responsible for delivering it to the intended recipient, you are hereby notified that you have received this document in error and that any review, dissemination, distribution, or copying of this message is strictly prohibited. If you have received this communication in error, please notify us immediately by e-mail, and delete the original message.

Past performance may not be indicative of future results. Therefore, it should not be assumed that future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy (including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended by Morton Capital) will be profitable. Many factors affect performance including changes in market conditions and interest rates and changes in response to other economic, political or financial developments. There is no guarantee that a particular investment objective will be achieved and Morton makes no representations as to the actual composition or performance of any security.

Schwab IMPACT 2020 Video

Our CEO, Jeff Sarti, was featured at Charles Schwab’s virtual IMPACT conference. Thousands of investment advisory professionals gathered remotely to learn how to think differently about the issues that matter most to their practices. This year Schwab highlighted four firms based on the impact they are making in the industry. In a year that has brought so much change, we are honored to be chosen.

Watch the video below as Jeff shares his personal thoughts on serving our clients during these uncertain times.

Quarterly Commentary – Q3 2020

In our third quarter 2020 client letter, we address four prevalent myths as they relate to financial markets and our clients’ portfolios:

Myth #1: The economy and the stock market have recovered
Myth #2: The stock market leaders (i.e., mega-cap tech stocks) will keep outperforming.
Myth #3: If [insert Democrats or Republicans] win the election, the stock market is doomed.
Myth #4: Stocks and bonds are good diversifiers.

To read the entire letter, click here or on the image below!

Sharkpreneur Podcast featuring Jeff Sarti ‘Growing to $2 Billion AUM’

Morton Capital CEO Jeff Sarti joined host Seth Greene on the Sharkprenuer podcast this week to talk about growing Morton Capital to $2 billion in assets under management.

Here are some of the key takeaways from this podcast:

  • Why people should view their wealth as more than just a number.
  •  How building a portfolio for the correct economic season is vital.
  • Why real estate investments allow people to be more conservative if necessary.
  • How they include real estate as assets under management at Morton Capital.
  • Why diversifying portfolios is important for people who are investing.

Thank you to Kevin and Seth for allowing us to share this segment of your podcast. We encourage listeners to head to MarketDominationLLC.com to hear more insightful episodes of Sharkprenuer episodes.


About the Podcast:
The Sharkpreneur Podcast was founded by Kevin Harrington and Seth Greene. On the podcast, Kevin and Seth interview SharkPreneurs who share straight talk on what it takes to explode your business.

About the Hosts:
Kevin Harrington is the inventor of the infomercial, one of the original sharks from the hit tv show shark tank, and has generated over 5 billion dollars in TV and digital direct response sales.

Seth Greene is the world’s #1 trusted authority on cutting edge direct response marketing, a best-selling author, the only 3x Marketer Of The Year Nominee, and the founder of http://www.MarketDominationLLC.com

Guest:
Jeff Sarti, Morton Capital, Chief Executive Officer


Disclosures

Information contained herein is provided for educational purposes only, and should not be taken as a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any individual security or asset class. The views expressed are those of the author and are subject to change without notice.

Certain private investment opportunities may only be available to eligible clients and can only be made after careful review and completion of applicable offering documents. Private investments are speculative and involve a high degree of risk. References to specific investments and performance information contained herein are for illustrative purposes only. This is not a representation that the investments described are suitable or appropriate for any person. 

Winners of InvestmentNews’ Best Places to Work are selected based on surveys voluntarily completed by employees and employers of participating firms.  Scores from the employee survey represent three quarters of the weight of the final rankings. To be eligible for the award firms must be a registered investment adviser or broker-dealer; be in business for at least one year and have at least 15 full-time employees.  Firms do not pay a fee to participate in the survey process or rankings.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. All investments involve risk including the loss of principal. Details on MC’s advisory services, fees and investment strategies, including a summary of risks surrounding the strategies, can be found in our Form ADV Part 2A. A copy may be obtained atwww.adviserinfo.sec.gov.

Why Is Gold Going Up?

Gold is making headlines in 2020, as its performance leads most other asset classes year-to-date and investors are starting to take notice. In particular, Warren Buffet’s recent purchase of a gold mining stock has caught the attention of the media. Those who only think of gold as a “safe-haven” investment have been surprised by its strong performance even as the stock market rallied from its March low. But fundamentally, we believe that gold is not an investment at all. Instead, it’s just another form of money like the U.S. dollar or the Euro. So, if it’s not an investment, what’s driving this big rally in gold? While the answer can be complex, we’d argue that there are two main areas on which to focus when it comes to understanding the price of gold: the money supply and investor sentiment.

Read the full article by clicking the image below.

 

Mid-Quarter Newsletter – August 2020

Our Investment Philosophy

The last several months have been extraordinary to say the least and there are still so many unknowns in terms of the financial markets, our economy, and what our world will look like post-pandemic. As a firm, we have undoubtedly adapted how we communicate with our team, other business professionals, and our clients. Throughout all of these changes, the element of our business that has stayed consistent is our investment philosophy. At Morton Capital, we’ve always taken a different approach to investing—one that we believe is the best way to provide the returns our clients need for their lifestyle while trying to protect them from the swings of the market. Our beliefs have remained the same since our founder, Lon Morton, started our company almost 40 years ago and we take great pride in carrying on his legacy.

As we continue to communicate virtually, our Investment Team recently created a video that speaks to how we design portfolios to help our clients get the most life out of their wealth. Watch the video to meet the team and learn a little more about us.

Watch our Investment Approach Video here.

 

Financial Advisor Success Podcast & RIA White Paper
Featuring our COO, Stacey McKinnon

Our Chief Operating Officer, Stacey McKinnon, was featured on a recent episode of Michael Kitces’s Financial Advisor Success Podcast. Michael is a well-known speaker, writer, and editor in the financial services industry. In the episode “Scaling an Advisory Firm by Finding New Talent Outside the Financial Services Industry,” Stacey and Michael talked in-depth about how Morton has grown and evolved as a firm in recent years. Stacey touched on our culture of trust initiative in 2017, our non-traditional approach to hiring talent from outside the industry, and the way we’ve restructured our compensation model.

Stacey also co-authored an RIA white paper with the CEO of PFI Advisors, Matt Sonnen, called “The New RIA Workplace.” The industry report explores the changes firms have had to make to their businesses since stay-at-home orders began. It also shares the pros and cons of both office and remote work environments, how leaders and managers are maintaining company culture during these times, and what the office of the future could look like.

Click here to listen to Stacey’s podcast with Michael Kitces and read the RIA White paper here.

 

Why Is Gold Going Up?

Gold is making headlines in 2020, as its performance leads most other asset classes year-to-date and investors are starting to take notice. In particular, Warren Buffet’s recent purchase of a gold mining stock has caught the attention of the media. Those who only think of gold as a “safe-haven” investment have been surprised by its strong performance even as the stock market rallied from its March low. But fundamentally, we believe that gold is not an investment at all. Instead, it’s just another form of money like the U.S. dollar or the Euro. So, if it’s not an investment, what’s driving this big rally in gold? While the answer can be complex, we’d argue that there are two main areas on which to focus when it comes to understanding the price of gold: the money supply and investor sentiment. Read the Full Article here.

 

A Conversation About Change with Chris Galeski
Featuring Retired PGA Tour Player Peter Tomasulo 

Chris Galeski, Wealth Advisor and Partner at Morton Capital, speaks with Peter Tomasulo, retired PGA Tour player and Director of Investor Relations at Lyon Living. In this 30-minute video interview, they reflect on their former sporting careers, life lessons, family, and the triggers and milestones that opened the door for transition and career change.

 

Watch the video!

Scaling An Advisory Firm By Finding New Talent Outside The Financial Services Industry, hosted by Michael Kitces featuring Stacey McKinnon

Michael Kitces sat down with our own Stacey McKinnon on his Financial Advisor Success podcast to discuss:

  • Morton’s non-traditional approach to hiring talent from outside the financial services industry to grow and scale. How Stacey has developed hiring practices to spot talent from outside the industry.
  • The in-depth interview process that Morton Capital uses to evaluate both prospective job skills and culture fit over a series of five to six meetings, and the career track that Morton has created to give everyone in the firm upward mobility to grow their careers over time.
  • The growth and evolution of Morton Capital itself as a multibillion-dollar RIA. The way the firm restructured its compensation away from traditional revenue-based approach to better align everyone on the team, the way Stacey helped the firm reduce the tendency to micromanage as the business grew by helping everyone across the firm build stronger relationships and what they dubbed a year-long culture of trust initiative, and how the Morton team now structures its weekly firm-wide education sessions every Thursday morning.

Be sure to listen to the end, where Stacey shares the challenge she faced in her own career journey when she had to decide whether to pursue an advisory or operations path, why the word “because” is so crucial in leadership conversations, and why Stacey believes the key to future success for advisors isn’t simply about finding a niche or specialization, but immersing yourself into a community of people that you can serve and with whom you have shared beliefs.

To access the show’s notes or read the transcript please click here.

About the Host:
Michael Kitces, Buckingham Wealth Partners, Head of Planning Strategy.
He is also a co-founder of the XY Planning NetworkAdvicePayfpPathfinder, and New Planner Recruiting, the former Practitioner Editor of the Journal of Financial Planning, the host of the Financial Advisor Success podcast, and the publisher of the popular financial planning industry blog Nerd’s Eye View through his website Kitces.com, dedicated to advancing knowledge in financial planning. In 2010, Michael was recognized with one of the FPA’s “Heart of Financial Planning” awards for his dedication and work in advancing the profession.

Guest:
Stacey McKinnon, Morton Capital, Chief Operating Officer

How Business Owners Can Find Opportunity in Chaos

While 2020 may seem like a difficult time to be a business owner, there are hidden opportunities to grow in the chaos, especially if you think of opportunity as the ability to make positive changes in your business regardless of what’s going on around you. Below are five things that every business owner should consider in this environment to capitalize on potential opportunities for growth.

Click here to read the full article.

Author:
Wade Calvert, Morton Capital, Wealth Advisor & Partner

Leadership in a New Workplace

As businesses prepare for a return to work in the coming month, one of the most important questions that every leader must be ready to address is: How do we operate differently to ensure that our people are still engaged and motivated? Beyond questions surrounding how to resume regular operations, we must first consider how we’ll successfully lead our teams through the drastic changes in their work environment.

Click here to read the full article.

Author:
Dan Charoenrath, Morton Capital, Direct of Operations

Quarterly Commentary – Q2 2020

Welcome to Wonderland

Adults and children alike are familiar with Lewis Carroll’s classic story, Alice’s Adventures in Wonderland, where the intrepid Alice ventures into a fantasy world that mixes the ridiculous with periodic insights into the human condition.  The story is one of the most well-known examples of the “literary nonsense” genre, which combines elements that make sense with others that do not.  In thinking about how to explain current events, certain anecdotes from the story offer some striking similarities.  If we lived in Wonderland, we might accept a market that is optimistically rising in the middle of a pandemic. But given that we do not live in Wonderland, we are staying consistent with our investment philosophy of risk management, true diversification, and cash flow, which has shown its resiliency in the first half of 2020 despite the wild roller coaster ride in the broader markets.

As the magnitude of the pandemic started becoming clear in early March, the financial markets fell into a bear market.  From its high in mid-February, the S&P 500 Index lost almost 35% in a span of five weeks, as volatility exceeded the turbulence of the Great Financial Crisis in 2008 and 2009.  Both the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the federal government reacted to the market downturn with aggressive policy responses that exceeded any other historical response (more on this later).  The extraordinary stimulus fueled a robust recovery in equity prices, though limited for the most part to larger companies in the United States.  From its low in late March, the S&P 500 Index rallied close to 40% to close down only 3.1% for the year by the end of the second quarter.  While other stock indices had a strong second quarter, most are still meaningfully negative on the year.

The table below summarizes the second-quarter performance for selected indices.

 

“Curiouser and Curiouser” 

After tumbling down the rabbit hole, Alice invents the word “curiouser” to try and describe the simultaneously fascinating and nonsensical world in which she finds herself. Our reality today bears similar attributes to this world of make-believe. All the economic news pundits out there keep talking about the different letter shapes that the economic recovery could take. Will the precipitous drop in economic activity be followed by an equally strong rebound, creating the ideal V-shaped recovery? Will economic growth flatline for some time, creating more of an “L” or, ultimately, a “U”? While the debate is still rampant as it relates to the fundamentals of the global economy, stock prices are looking more and more like a “V” as illustrated in the below chart of the S&P 500’s recent performance.

 

Fastest Stock Market Fall and Recovery in History

There is a real danger of confusing this stock market rebound with an economic recovery. While many stock prices have had a V-shaped recovery, valuations and underlying fundamentals tell a completely different story. Corporate earnings have been almost cut in half from pre-crisis levels. While unemployment has slowed its rise, it remains meaningfully elevated. Though numerous cities in the United States started to reopen a few weeks ago, spiking virus cases are sending many back into lockdown. These challenging fundamentals have made us wonder whether the “V” in stocks will turn into a “W” and retest previous lows.

There is a general perception out there that all this economic damage is temporary and will be reversed as soon as there is a vaccine or we get the virus under control. Unfortunately, though, we are already seeing more permanent damage to the economy in the form of spiking bankruptcies—and we are only a few months into this crisis. Many of these bankruptcies are big-name companies that most of you likely know: Hertz, J.Crew, Neiman Marcus, JCPenny, Cirque du Soleil, Pier 1 Imports, and 24 Hour Fitness. Most of the bankruptcies so far have been consumer-related companies, which does not bode well since the consumer accounts for two-thirds of all economic growth! With so much bad news on the actual economy, it is definitely “curiouser and curiouser” that the stock market continues to march higher, day after day, almost in defiance of reality.

 

The Stimulus Rabbit Hole

In the absence of improving fundamentals, the U.S. government’s aggressive response to the COVID-19 crisis seems to be the driving force behind the stock market’s recovery.  The below graph puts the current stimulus and policy response in context with spending that took place in previous crises.

These numbers are in today’s dollars, or, in other words, they are adjusted for inflation to make them apples to apples. And these numbers do not factor in the additional stimulus that is likely coming in the ensuing months. The CARES Act infused $2 trillion into the American economy and included assistance to businesses, states and localities; 159 million stimulus checks to individuals and families; and extra payments of $600 a week in unemployment benefits to tens of millions of Americans. The Fed entered the fray as well by employing their main tools designed to stimulate economic growth: lowering interest rates and buying bonds (with the goal of keeping long-term interest rates low). The Fed very quickly lowered short-term rates to zero and then launched a bond-buying campaign that is expanding its balance sheet to a parabolic degree. Already, the Fed has added $3 trillion to its balance sheet, pushing it up to an all-time high of $7 trillion, and it has all but promised to continue throwing money at the problem and do whatever it takes to get the economy back on track. The challenge is that with each economic bump in the road, it seems to be taking more and more extreme policy responses to keep the economy on track. As the Red Queen tells Alice, “It takes all the running you can do, to keep in the same place. If you want to get somewhere else, you must run at least twice as fast as that!”

By injecting massive stimulus, governments are once again contributing to speculative investor behavior that has further decoupled asset valuations from underlying fundamentals. This manifests itself in various forms, one example being the massive run-up in the stock prices of a handful of technology companies. The five largest stocks in the S&P 500 are Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, and Google. Toward the end of May, those five stocks were up 15% for the year while the other 495 stocks in the index were down 8%. While some of these companies have held up well or even prospered in the current crisis, their stocks are still escalating at a pace well beyond their current earnings growth trajectories. Not surprisingly, the increase in the stock market (coupled with Americans getting stimulus checks and no longer having professional sports to bet on) has corresponded with a spike in new accounts being opened at brokerage firms like Charles Schwab and E*TRADE. These new traders not only speculate on the darling tech companies, but have also jumped into distressed names. There has been very high trading volume in companies like Hertz, which declared bankruptcy in late May and subsequently saw a jump in its stock price from $1 up to $5, before it fell back down again, as these inexperienced day traders jumped in and out of a stock that is very likely worth $0 at the end of the day. Perhaps Alice would have been able to empathize with these traders when she declared, “Why, sometimes I’ve believed as many as six impossible things before breakfast.”

 

We Refuse to Play Croquet with a Flamingo

Investing in broader markets today, we can relate to how Alice must have felt playing “croquet” with the Queen, where the balls were hedgehogs and the mallets live flamingos. The rules of the game keep changing, but rather than give into the nonsensical, we are more determined than ever to find investments where the fundamentals still make sense.

An example of one such investment is the allocation that we made during the second quarter to a mutual fund that invests primarily in bonds backed by real estate. At the height of the volatility this year, these bonds traded down dramatically as certain holders were forced to sell to generate liquidity. The fundamentals, however, did not justify such dramatic price declines. When we dug deeper, we found that many of the bonds were backed by seasoned home mortgages that were outstanding prior to the 2008 crisis. These loans survived that crisis and now have 12 to 15 years of payment history, lower balances since they have been amortizing over time, and typically higher home values since real estate prices have appreciated. Pools of these mortgages had average loan-to-value ratios of approximately 55-60%, meaning that home prices would have to take major hits before the loans would be at risk of impairment. Because of the dramatic price declines these bonds saw earlier this year, they now yield income in the mid-single digits and have the potential for double-digit total returns as prices recover in the future.

Another example of sticking to the fundamentals is our allocation to gold. We have had an allocation to gold for some time but increased our target to this asset in late 2019. While we, of course, had no insight into the upcoming pandemic, we were increasingly concerned with the lack of discipline being exhibited by governments. This lack of discipline has only been magnified in the current environment, increasing our conviction in gold as a true store of value in an environment where more and more money is being printed every day. We think that this is an environment where the fundamentals support a strong outlook for gold.

We continue to look for other opportunities with solid fundamentals, but many of the investments that are currently on our radar are less liquid than those found in public markets. Even prior to the recent crisis, we were finding that willing investors could trade market risk for some degree of liquidity risk (i.e., an inability to immediately sell for cash). We believe these less liquid assets have the potential for more consistent long-term returns based on the fundamentals and offer investors an alternative to exposing themselves to the irrationality of investing in Wonderland. However, the amount of liquidity risk that is appropriate is going to vary for each individual’s portfolio. As we pursue a number of these new strategies in the coming months, we would strongly encourage you to revisit your financial plan. Your plan is essential in determining how much liquidity risk is appropriate for your personal situation. It is also a great time to revisit your risk tolerance and ask yourself how much volatility you are comfortable within your portfolio. We just went through a roller coaster ride in the stock market; if you found yourself nervous and losing sleep over it, it may make a lot of sense to take some risk off the table now that asset prices have had a strong recovery.

Please do not hesitate to contact your Morton Capital wealth advisory team if you have any questions or would like to review your portfolio or financial plan in more detail. As always, we appreciate your continued confidence and trust.

Morton Capital Investment Team

 

 

Disclosures

This commentary is mailed quarterly to our clients and friends and is for information purposes only.  This document should not be taken as a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any individual security or asset class, and should not be considered investment advice. This memorandum expresses the views of the author and are subject to change without notice. All information contained herein is current only as of the earlier of the date hereof and the date on which it is delivered by Morton Capital (MC) to the intended recipient, or such other date indicated with respect to specific information. Certain information contained herein is based on or derived from information provided by independent third-party sources. The author believes that the sources from which such information has been obtained are reliable; however, it cannot guarantee the accuracy of such information. Any performance information contained herein is for illustrative purposes only.

Certain private investment opportunities discussed herein may only be available to eligible clients and can only be made after careful review and completion of applicable offering documents. Private investments are speculative and involve a high degree of risk.

The indices referenced in this document are provided to allow for comparison to well-known and widely recognized asset classes and asset class categories. Q3 returns shown are from 06-28-2019 through 09-30-2019 and the year-to-date returns are from 12-31-2018 through 09-30-2019.  Index returns shown do not reflect the deduction of any fees or expenses. The volatility of the benchmarks may be materially different from the performance of MC.  In addition, MC’s recommendations may differ significantly from the securities that comprise the benchmarks.  Indices are unmanaged, and an investment cannot be made directly in an index.

Past performance is not indicative of future results.  All investments involve risk including the loss of principal. Details on MC’s advisory services, fees and investment strategies, including a summary of risks surrounding the strategies, can be found in our Form ADV Part 2A. A copy may be obtained at www.adviserinfo.sec.gov.