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Why Is Gold Going Up?

Gold is making headlines in 2020, as its performance leads most other asset classes year-to-date and investors are starting to take notice. In particular, Warren Buffet’s recent purchase of a gold mining stock has caught the attention of the media. Those who only think of gold as a “safe-haven” investment have been surprised by its strong performance even as the stock market rallied from its March low. But fundamentally, we believe that gold is not an investment at all. Instead, it’s just another form of money like the U.S. dollar or the Euro. So, if it’s not an investment, what’s driving this big rally in gold? While the answer can be complex, we’d argue that there are two main areas on which to focus when it comes to understanding the price of gold: the money supply and investor sentiment.

Read the full article by clicking the image below.

 

Mid-Quarter Newsletter – August 2020

Our Investment Philosophy

The last several months have been extraordinary to say the least and there are still so many unknowns in terms of the financial markets, our economy, and what our world will look like post-pandemic. As a firm, we have undoubtedly adapted how we communicate with our team, other business professionals, and our clients. Throughout all of these changes, the element of our business that has stayed consistent is our investment philosophy. At Morton Capital, we’ve always taken a different approach to investing—one that we believe is the best way to provide the returns our clients need for their lifestyle while trying to protect them from the swings of the market. Our beliefs have remained the same since our founder, Lon Morton, started our company almost 40 years ago and we take great pride in carrying on his legacy.

As we continue to communicate virtually, our Investment Team recently created a video that speaks to how we design portfolios to help our clients get the most life out of their wealth. Watch the video to meet the team and learn a little more about us.

Watch our Investment Approach Video here.

 

Financial Advisor Success Podcast & RIA White Paper
Featuring our COO, Stacey McKinnon

Our Chief Operating Officer, Stacey McKinnon, was featured on a recent episode of Michael Kitces’s Financial Advisor Success Podcast. Michael is a well-known speaker, writer, and editor in the financial services industry. In the episode “Scaling an Advisory Firm by Finding New Talent Outside the Financial Services Industry,” Stacey and Michael talked in-depth about how Morton has grown and evolved as a firm in recent years. Stacey touched on our culture of trust initiative in 2017, our non-traditional approach to hiring talent from outside the industry, and the way we’ve restructured our compensation model.

Stacey also co-authored an RIA white paper with the CEO of PFI Advisors, Matt Sonnen, called “The New RIA Workplace.” The industry report explores the changes firms have had to make to their businesses since stay-at-home orders began. It also shares the pros and cons of both office and remote work environments, how leaders and managers are maintaining company culture during these times, and what the office of the future could look like.

Click here to listen to Stacey’s podcast with Michael Kitces and read the RIA White paper here.

 

Why Is Gold Going Up?

Gold is making headlines in 2020, as its performance leads most other asset classes year-to-date and investors are starting to take notice. In particular, Warren Buffet’s recent purchase of a gold mining stock has caught the attention of the media. Those who only think of gold as a “safe-haven” investment have been surprised by its strong performance even as the stock market rallied from its March low. But fundamentally, we believe that gold is not an investment at all. Instead, it’s just another form of money like the U.S. dollar or the Euro. So, if it’s not an investment, what’s driving this big rally in gold? While the answer can be complex, we’d argue that there are two main areas on which to focus when it comes to understanding the price of gold: the money supply and investor sentiment. Read the Full Article here.

 

A Conversation About Change with Chris Galeski
Featuring Retired PGA Tour Player Peter Tomasulo 

Chris Galeski, Wealth Advisor and Partner at Morton Capital, speaks with Peter Tomasulo, retired PGA Tour player and Director of Investor Relations at Lyon Living. In this 30-minute video interview, they reflect on their former sporting careers, life lessons, family, and the triggers and milestones that opened the door for transition and career change.

 

Watch the video!

Scaling An Advisory Firm By Finding New Talent Outside The Financial Services Industry, hosted by Michael Kitces featuring Stacey McKinnon

Michael Kitces sat down with our own Stacey McKinnon on his Financial Advisor Success podcast to discuss:

  • Morton’s non-traditional approach to hiring talent from outside the financial services industry to grow and scale. How Stacey has developed hiring practices to spot talent from outside the industry.
  • The in-depth interview process that Morton Capital uses to evaluate both prospective job skills and culture fit over a series of five to six meetings, and the career track that Morton has created to give everyone in the firm upward mobility to grow their careers over time.
  • The growth and evolution of Morton Capital itself as a multibillion-dollar RIA. The way the firm restructured its compensation away from traditional revenue-based approach to better align everyone on the team, the way Stacey helped the firm reduce the tendency to micromanage as the business grew by helping everyone across the firm build stronger relationships and what they dubbed a year-long culture of trust initiative, and how the Morton team now structures its weekly firm-wide education sessions every Thursday morning.

Be sure to listen to the end, where Stacey shares the challenge she faced in her own career journey when she had to decide whether to pursue an advisory or operations path, why the word “because” is so crucial in leadership conversations, and why Stacey believes the key to future success for advisors isn’t simply about finding a niche or specialization, but immersing yourself into a community of people that you can serve and with whom you have shared beliefs.

To access the show’s notes or read the transcript please click here.

About the Host:
Michael Kitces, Buckingham Wealth Partners, Head of Planning Strategy.
He is also a co-founder of the XY Planning NetworkAdvicePayfpPathfinder, and New Planner Recruiting, the former Practitioner Editor of the Journal of Financial Planning, the host of the Financial Advisor Success podcast, and the publisher of the popular financial planning industry blog Nerd’s Eye View through his website Kitces.com, dedicated to advancing knowledge in financial planning. In 2010, Michael was recognized with one of the FPA’s “Heart of Financial Planning” awards for his dedication and work in advancing the profession.

Guest:
Stacey McKinnon, Morton Capital, Chief Operating Officer

How Business Owners Can Find Opportunity in Chaos

While 2020 may seem like a difficult time to be a business owner, there are hidden opportunities to grow in the chaos, especially if you think of opportunity as the ability to make positive changes in your business regardless of what’s going on around you. Below are five things that every business owner should consider in this environment to capitalize on potential opportunities for growth.

Click here to read the full article.

Author:
Wade Calvert, Morton Capital, Wealth Advisor & Partner

Leadership in a New Workplace

As businesses prepare for a return to work in the coming month, one of the most important questions that every leader must be ready to address is: How do we operate differently to ensure that our people are still engaged and motivated? Beyond questions surrounding how to resume regular operations, we must first consider how we’ll successfully lead our teams through the drastic changes in their work environment.

Click here to read the full article.

Author:
Dan Charoenrath, Morton Capital, Direct of Operations

Quarterly Commentary – Q2 2020

Welcome to Wonderland

Adults and children alike are familiar with Lewis Carroll’s classic story, Alice’s Adventures in Wonderland, where the intrepid Alice ventures into a fantasy world that mixes the ridiculous with periodic insights into the human condition.  The story is one of the most well-known examples of the “literary nonsense” genre, which combines elements that make sense with others that do not.  In thinking about how to explain current events, certain anecdotes from the story offer some striking similarities.  If we lived in Wonderland, we might accept a market that is optimistically rising in the middle of a pandemic. But given that we do not live in Wonderland, we are staying consistent with our investment philosophy of risk management, true diversification, and cash flow, which has shown its resiliency in the first half of 2020 despite the wild roller coaster ride in the broader markets.

As the magnitude of the pandemic started becoming clear in early March, the financial markets fell into a bear market.  From its high in mid-February, the S&P 500 Index lost almost 35% in a span of five weeks, as volatility exceeded the turbulence of the Great Financial Crisis in 2008 and 2009.  Both the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the federal government reacted to the market downturn with aggressive policy responses that exceeded any other historical response (more on this later).  The extraordinary stimulus fueled a robust recovery in equity prices, though limited for the most part to larger companies in the United States.  From its low in late March, the S&P 500 Index rallied close to 40% to close down only 3.1% for the year by the end of the second quarter.  While other stock indices had a strong second quarter, most are still meaningfully negative on the year.

The table below summarizes the second-quarter performance for selected indices.

 

“Curiouser and Curiouser” 

After tumbling down the rabbit hole, Alice invents the word “curiouser” to try and describe the simultaneously fascinating and nonsensical world in which she finds herself. Our reality today bears similar attributes to this world of make-believe. All the economic news pundits out there keep talking about the different letter shapes that the economic recovery could take. Will the precipitous drop in economic activity be followed by an equally strong rebound, creating the ideal V-shaped recovery? Will economic growth flatline for some time, creating more of an “L” or, ultimately, a “U”? While the debate is still rampant as it relates to the fundamentals of the global economy, stock prices are looking more and more like a “V” as illustrated in the below chart of the S&P 500’s recent performance.

 

Fastest Stock Market Fall and Recovery in History

There is a real danger of confusing this stock market rebound with an economic recovery. While many stock prices have had a V-shaped recovery, valuations and underlying fundamentals tell a completely different story. Corporate earnings have been almost cut in half from pre-crisis levels. While unemployment has slowed its rise, it remains meaningfully elevated. Though numerous cities in the United States started to reopen a few weeks ago, spiking virus cases are sending many back into lockdown. These challenging fundamentals have made us wonder whether the “V” in stocks will turn into a “W” and retest previous lows.

There is a general perception out there that all this economic damage is temporary and will be reversed as soon as there is a vaccine or we get the virus under control. Unfortunately, though, we are already seeing more permanent damage to the economy in the form of spiking bankruptcies—and we are only a few months into this crisis. Many of these bankruptcies are big-name companies that most of you likely know: Hertz, J.Crew, Neiman Marcus, JCPenny, Cirque du Soleil, Pier 1 Imports, and 24 Hour Fitness. Most of the bankruptcies so far have been consumer-related companies, which does not bode well since the consumer accounts for two-thirds of all economic growth! With so much bad news on the actual economy, it is definitely “curiouser and curiouser” that the stock market continues to march higher, day after day, almost in defiance of reality.

 

The Stimulus Rabbit Hole

In the absence of improving fundamentals, the U.S. government’s aggressive response to the COVID-19 crisis seems to be the driving force behind the stock market’s recovery.  The below graph puts the current stimulus and policy response in context with spending that took place in previous crises.

These numbers are in today’s dollars, or, in other words, they are adjusted for inflation to make them apples to apples. And these numbers do not factor in the additional stimulus that is likely coming in the ensuing months. The CARES Act infused $2 trillion into the American economy and included assistance to businesses, states and localities; 159 million stimulus checks to individuals and families; and extra payments of $600 a week in unemployment benefits to tens of millions of Americans. The Fed entered the fray as well by employing their main tools designed to stimulate economic growth: lowering interest rates and buying bonds (with the goal of keeping long-term interest rates low). The Fed very quickly lowered short-term rates to zero and then launched a bond-buying campaign that is expanding its balance sheet to a parabolic degree. Already, the Fed has added $3 trillion to its balance sheet, pushing it up to an all-time high of $7 trillion, and it has all but promised to continue throwing money at the problem and do whatever it takes to get the economy back on track. The challenge is that with each economic bump in the road, it seems to be taking more and more extreme policy responses to keep the economy on track. As the Red Queen tells Alice, “It takes all the running you can do, to keep in the same place. If you want to get somewhere else, you must run at least twice as fast as that!”

By injecting massive stimulus, governments are once again contributing to speculative investor behavior that has further decoupled asset valuations from underlying fundamentals. This manifests itself in various forms, one example being the massive run-up in the stock prices of a handful of technology companies. The five largest stocks in the S&P 500 are Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, and Google. Toward the end of May, those five stocks were up 15% for the year while the other 495 stocks in the index were down 8%. While some of these companies have held up well or even prospered in the current crisis, their stocks are still escalating at a pace well beyond their current earnings growth trajectories. Not surprisingly, the increase in the stock market (coupled with Americans getting stimulus checks and no longer having professional sports to bet on) has corresponded with a spike in new accounts being opened at brokerage firms like Charles Schwab and E*TRADE. These new traders not only speculate on the darling tech companies, but have also jumped into distressed names. There has been very high trading volume in companies like Hertz, which declared bankruptcy in late May and subsequently saw a jump in its stock price from $1 up to $5, before it fell back down again, as these inexperienced day traders jumped in and out of a stock that is very likely worth $0 at the end of the day. Perhaps Alice would have been able to empathize with these traders when she declared, “Why, sometimes I’ve believed as many as six impossible things before breakfast.”

 

We Refuse to Play Croquet with a Flamingo

Investing in broader markets today, we can relate to how Alice must have felt playing “croquet” with the Queen, where the balls were hedgehogs and the mallets live flamingos. The rules of the game keep changing, but rather than give into the nonsensical, we are more determined than ever to find investments where the fundamentals still make sense.

An example of one such investment is the allocation that we made during the second quarter to a mutual fund that invests primarily in bonds backed by real estate. At the height of the volatility this year, these bonds traded down dramatically as certain holders were forced to sell to generate liquidity. The fundamentals, however, did not justify such dramatic price declines. When we dug deeper, we found that many of the bonds were backed by seasoned home mortgages that were outstanding prior to the 2008 crisis. These loans survived that crisis and now have 12 to 15 years of payment history, lower balances since they have been amortizing over time, and typically higher home values since real estate prices have appreciated. Pools of these mortgages had average loan-to-value ratios of approximately 55-60%, meaning that home prices would have to take major hits before the loans would be at risk of impairment. Because of the dramatic price declines these bonds saw earlier this year, they now yield income in the mid-single digits and have the potential for double-digit total returns as prices recover in the future.

Another example of sticking to the fundamentals is our allocation to gold. We have had an allocation to gold for some time but increased our target to this asset in late 2019. While we, of course, had no insight into the upcoming pandemic, we were increasingly concerned with the lack of discipline being exhibited by governments. This lack of discipline has only been magnified in the current environment, increasing our conviction in gold as a true store of value in an environment where more and more money is being printed every day. We think that this is an environment where the fundamentals support a strong outlook for gold.

We continue to look for other opportunities with solid fundamentals, but many of the investments that are currently on our radar are less liquid than those found in public markets. Even prior to the recent crisis, we were finding that willing investors could trade market risk for some degree of liquidity risk (i.e., an inability to immediately sell for cash). We believe these less liquid assets have the potential for more consistent long-term returns based on the fundamentals and offer investors an alternative to exposing themselves to the irrationality of investing in Wonderland. However, the amount of liquidity risk that is appropriate is going to vary for each individual’s portfolio. As we pursue a number of these new strategies in the coming months, we would strongly encourage you to revisit your financial plan. Your plan is essential in determining how much liquidity risk is appropriate for your personal situation. It is also a great time to revisit your risk tolerance and ask yourself how much volatility you are comfortable within your portfolio. We just went through a roller coaster ride in the stock market; if you found yourself nervous and losing sleep over it, it may make a lot of sense to take some risk off the table now that asset prices have had a strong recovery.

Please do not hesitate to contact your Morton Capital wealth advisory team if you have any questions or would like to review your portfolio or financial plan in more detail. As always, we appreciate your continued confidence and trust.

Morton Capital Investment Team

 

 

Disclosures

This commentary is mailed quarterly to our clients and friends and is for information purposes only.  This document should not be taken as a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any individual security or asset class, and should not be considered investment advice. This memorandum expresses the views of the author and are subject to change without notice. All information contained herein is current only as of the earlier of the date hereof and the date on which it is delivered by Morton Capital (MC) to the intended recipient, or such other date indicated with respect to specific information. Certain information contained herein is based on or derived from information provided by independent third-party sources. The author believes that the sources from which such information has been obtained are reliable; however, it cannot guarantee the accuracy of such information. Any performance information contained herein is for illustrative purposes only.

Certain private investment opportunities discussed herein may only be available to eligible clients and can only be made after careful review and completion of applicable offering documents. Private investments are speculative and involve a high degree of risk.

The indices referenced in this document are provided to allow for comparison to well-known and widely recognized asset classes and asset class categories. Q3 returns shown are from 06-28-2019 through 09-30-2019 and the year-to-date returns are from 12-31-2018 through 09-30-2019.  Index returns shown do not reflect the deduction of any fees or expenses. The volatility of the benchmarks may be materially different from the performance of MC.  In addition, MC’s recommendations may differ significantly from the securities that comprise the benchmarks.  Indices are unmanaged, and an investment cannot be made directly in an index.

Past performance is not indicative of future results.  All investments involve risk including the loss of principal. Details on MC’s advisory services, fees and investment strategies, including a summary of risks surrounding the strategies, can be found in our Form ADV Part 2A. A copy may be obtained at www.adviserinfo.sec.gov.

MC Stories – Banking 101 – College Edition

Do you remember your first day of college? That feeling of excitement combined with trepidation at the idea of embarking on this new adventure that will eventually lead to a new career as well as financial independence? Now, do you also remember the day you had to open your first checking account – one that did not have your parents as joint co-owners? Well, that day might have been less exciting, but it probably held equal amounts of apprehension. In my first assignment as a branch manager in a small college beach town, they allowed me to work closely with students and I soon realized how ill-prepared they were to be on their own – financially speaking. I too was a college student once and so I wanted to share the top four things a young adult should consider before they open their first bank account.

  • Know what makes each financial institution different. When I started looking for a job in the banking world, I assumed all banks were the same. Most people have the same approach when it comes to doing their banking. Know that you have options! Online tools make shopping for a bank easy. Things you’ll want to research and compare include fees, interest rates, online and mobile monitoring options, branch proximity and ATM locations.
  • Know what fees you can anticipate. Banks charge fees – and lots of them. Using another bank’s ATM? Picked the wrong checking account and now you are paying monthly fees? How about that savings account? There is a limitation to how many withdrawals or transfers you can do a month – the number is six – before fees get assessed. And my favorite… “ I can’t be out of money – I still have checks!” Make sure that when using your debit card or paying your bills online, you do not exceed your ability to pay for them. In the event you forget, the bank won’t and you’ll be charged non-sufficient funds or overdraft fees.
  • Know what you need. Remember that talk your parents had with you about “wants” versus “needs”? Well, that conversation definitely comes into play here. You should only borrow what you absolutely need. The banker will eagerly want to sell you on a credit card, but from my personal experience, stick to a secured credit card as that will not only help build up your credit score but it will also help not overspend due to its small credit line. Most students are not great at budgeting and recovering from bad credit or handling repayment due to high-interest rates is no fun.
  • Know how to pay yourself first. By paying yourself before others, you are building the habits and discipline it takes to gain peace of mind with an emergency fund, saving for large purchases, and invest for long-term wealth building. First, start with a savings account – preferably not at the same bank as the one you have your checking. Next, set up an auto-transfer between your accounts on a monthly basis. This will kickstart your emergency savings account.

Regardless of where you are in this process, I leave you with this: research, read the fine print, and track your spending. Happy Banking!

MC Stories – Eliminating Capital Gain Tax on the Sale of an Appreciated Asset Through the Use of a Charitable Tax-Exempt Trust

For many investors, a barrier to diversifying their portfolio is the impact of losing 25% of their profits if they sell a highly appreciated asset. If you are charitably inclined, that barrier can be eliminated by using a tax-exempt trust, as outlined by the following example:

Let’s assume you have a highly appreciated asset (perhaps stock or real estate) that you paid $200,000 for, and that has a market value of $1,200,000. Your capital gain would be $1,000,000. If you sold that asset, you’d only have about $950,000 to reinvest after paying 25% of your gain in taxes (approximately $250,000). By using a tax-exempt trust you would have the full $1,200,000 to reinvest.

    Here’s how it works:

  1. You establish this trust prior to selling the asset. The terms and provisions of the trust are established at its inception. Prior to selling the asset, you transfer the asset to the trust. You and your spouse (if married) become income beneficiaries for your lifetimes to the trust. The IRS sets a range of “approved interest rates”; let’s say 5% per year.  So, in year 1, the trust will distribute an income to you of $60,000 ( 5% of $1,200K). If the trust earns a return of greater than 5%, your income the next year will go up. But the big advantage is that you have $1,200,000  to invest, rather than the $950,000. Additionally, you can be your own trustee, so that the investment decisions and control of the assets are retained.
  2. Why does this trust qualify to be tax-exempt? Primarily there are 2 reasons:
    1. The trust is irrevocable, so once established, it cannot be modified.
    2. A t the death of the last income beneficiary, the remaining balance of the trust is paid to a 501c3 charitable organization (the legal name of this trust is a Charitable Remainder Trust). An additional benefit is that upon transferring the asset(s) to the trust, you receive an immediate charitable income tax deduction for the “present value of the future interest” of the “gift”. Depending on the age(s) of the income beneficiary and the established interest rate, the deduction can be in the range of 25% of the gift. So, in this example, instead of paying $250K in capital gain taxes immediately, you’ll SAVE $100K in income taxes as a result of the charitable deduction.

   The main disadvantages of this arrangement are:

  1. Lack of liquidity. You do not have access to principal; only the income that the trust distributes. If you are dependent on the principal from the sale proceeds for your lifetime/retirement, this may not be the best strategy for your cash needs.
  2. At the death of the last income beneficiary, the money is not retained by your heirs. That “negative” can perhaps be eliminated through the use of a life insurance policy (the premium will be substantially less than the capital gains taxes you, otherwise would have paid). However, for those investors where this trust makes sense, this technique allows them to fulfill their charitable wishes, and normally, this is only a “piece of their estate” so the balance of their net worth will be distributed to their chosen heirs.
  3. While the earnings and gains in the trust are tax-exempt, the income that is distributed from the trust to the income beneficiaries is generally taxed.

The above is only meant to be a concise summary of this strategy. You should consult your financial advisor, tax professional or attorney to obtain more information. Tax rates used in this article are for illustrative purposes only and may not apply to your unique situation.

 


Disclosures:

This information is presented for educational purposes only, is hypothetical in nature and does not represent actual clients. The information presented is not written or intended as financial, tax or legal advice, and may not be relied on for purposes of avoiding any federal tax penalties under the Internal Revenue Code. Use of this information is not a substitute for legal counsel, and Morton Capital makes no warranties with regard to information contained herein. You are encouraged to seek financial, tax and legal advice from your professional advisors before implementing any transactions and/or strategies concerning your taxes or estate plan.

MC Stories – Wearing Multiple Hats

If I were to ask you how many hats do you wear, what would your answer be? For me, I wear the hats of wife, mom, Associate Advisor, and student. Unfortunately, time does not expand the more hats you wear. So how can we juggle the different roles that we are in? It is important to have separate environments for each of the roles that you have. One of the hardest things to do is to keep work at work. Not all our jobs allow us to take our work hat off completely. However, it is important that when we work from home, we have a dedicated space for doing so. Even though it is easy to take a laptop from room to room, it blurs the lines between roles.

I have found the following tips useful in helping me be fully present in each role:

  • Have separate spaces: It is important to have separate environments for each of the roles that you have. One of the hardest things to do is to keep work at work. Not all our jobs allow us to take our work hat off completely. However, it is important that when we work from home, we have a dedicated space for doing so. Even though it is easy to take a laptop from room to room, it blurs the lines between roles.
  • Dedicate your time specifically: This advice has been the most helpful for me. If you look through the pictures of this post, I shared my schedule. On weekdays, I dedicate my mornings to my family, 9am-5pm to work, 5pm-7pm to my kids before they go to bed, then I have time for school. This way, I can focus on each role individually rather than being overwhelmed with everything that needs to get accomplished in each role all at once. 
  • Communicate your schedule and ask others to hold you accountable: Unless I have a meeting or school assignment that takes me out of my normal scheduled time, my family knows that when it’s 5 o’clock, they can come into my office and help me transition to family time. I think this is important because it makes them feel just as important as the work I was doing during the day. I also set these guidelines with my peers at work so they are confident that I will be responsive and reliable during my work hours. 
  • Schedule things to look forward to in each role: Sometimes our schedules can become monotonous. It is important to schedule things to look forward to in each role. My oldest daughter and I have hot chocolate every Saturday morning. When I am bogged down by a busy work week or demanding school assignment, the thought of Saturday morning helps me push through it.

Many of us may not realize how many hats we truly wear. However, the current environment is challenging the “norm” and highlighting the different roles we all play.  What hats do you wear? Which of these tips do you think would be useful for you? The next time you start feeling overwhelmed by how much is on your plate, take a moment, breathe, and make sure you aren’t wearing too many hats at once.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

MC Stories – Timing is not critical to long term success… however, time is!

 

Time or timing…which is more critical to investment success? We would say time in the market is more important. Investors would all like to buy near the bottom of the market declines and sell near the high, but no one can accurately predict when those opportunities will present themselves. It is only with the benefit of hindsight that these highs and lows become evident, so staying invested in the market is critical to capture the benefits. We often hear investors say that their market anxiety keeps them on the sidelines to save them pain, but it may also ensure they will miss the gain. Historically, downturns have been followed by eventual upswings, but knowing when that is going to occur is impossible to predict. This is why it is imperative to understand how much stock market exposure is appropriate for you, diversify your portfolio so that your lifestyle isn’t impacted by market swings, and avoid trying to outsmart the market.

Here is an example of what could have happened if an investor tried to outsmart the market vs. giving their investments time to perform. If you had invested $1000 in the S&P 500 (excluding dividends) on January 1, 2009 and left it there 10 years, until 12/31/18 it would have grown to $2775 or more than 10% a year. Had you tried to time the market and missed the 20 best days during that ten-year period, your investment would be worth $1228 or a little over 2%. Had you missed the 40 best days your $1000 would only be worth $712. The conclusion: time in the market is much more important to your investment success than timing the market.

(Sources: Thomson Reuters and S&P 500 index)