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MC Stories – Timing is not critical to long term success… however, time is!

 

Time or timing…which is more critical to investment success? We would say time in the market is more important. Investors would all like to buy near the bottom of the market declines and sell near the high, but no one can accurately predict when those opportunities will present themselves. It is only with the benefit of hindsight that these highs and lows become evident, so staying invested in the market is critical to capture the benefits. We often hear investors say that their market anxiety keeps them on the sidelines to save them pain, but it may also ensure they will miss the gain. Historically, downturns have been followed by eventual upswings, but knowing when that is going to occur is impossible to predict. This is why it is imperative to understand how much stock market exposure is appropriate for you, diversify your portfolio so that your lifestyle isn’t impacted by market swings, and avoid trying to outsmart the market.

Here is an example of what could have happened if an investor tried to outsmart the market vs. giving their investments time to perform. If you had invested $1000 in the S&P 500 (excluding dividends) on January 1, 2009 and left it there 10 years, until 12/31/18 it would have grown to $2775 or more than 10% a year. Had you tried to time the market and missed the 20 best days during that ten-year period, your investment would be worth $1228 or a little over 2%. Had you missed the 40 best days your $1000 would only be worth $712. The conclusion: time in the market is much more important to your investment success than timing the market.

(Sources: Thomson Reuters and S&P 500 index)

MC Stories – A 22-Year Love Affair with Alternatives

I met Lon Morton, the eponymous founder of Morton Capital Management, in 1984 when our family business was looking for a pension administration company. My father and I then started investing with Morton Capital in 1987, just three weeks before something called Black Monday, when the markets dropped about 50%. I remember calling Lon and asking, “What do we do now?” He said, “We do nothing.  Unfortunately, these things can happen, no one is able to predict it, but we are going to stay the course as markets tend to work themselves out.” With hindsight being 20-20, it was good advice as the markets did work themselves out and we had solid returns for the next few years.

I sold my company in 1996 and left in 1998, telling Lon that I was intended to retire at the ripe old age of 40. He firmly told me that I was NOT going to retire and that I was going to work with him at Morton Capital. We had worked together investing for many years, and he wanted to tap my experience in managing a company. Little did I know how wonderful a relationship and lifetime adventure it would turn out to be.

As luck would have it, I started investing my final company sale payout in the second half of 1998 and was met by a significant downturn in stocks. Disappointed, I came home to my wife and said, “I will never let the stock market be the sole dictator of our financial future.”  Thus, my love affair with alternative investments began.

With some effort, we survived the three years of the Y2K market crash and lived through the great financial crisis of 2008. Now we are faced with probably the biggest health and financial crisis in our lifetime: pandemic. With most of the world shut down, it will take all our combined resolve to overcome and beat the virus and get back to our normal lives. Having lived through a number of these disruptions in the markets, I firmly believe that our resolve and perseverance on the health side, and our asset allocation decisions on the financial side, will win the day!

Much of this is made possible by the incredibly hard work and dedication of the entire Morton Capital team. Being the senior partner, it is gratifying to see all our younger teammates working so hard and sensing the responsibility of service to our clients and making sure that they are okay. I have been fortunate to work with many good teams in the past, but there is no doubt that the current team at Morton Capital is outstanding. It makes me proud to be part of that diligence and compassion. I am even prouder of Morton Capital’s recent Give Back initiative: a community outreach to offer free consultations, advice, and guidance to help our community in this time of need. If you know of a friend or loved one in need of some direction, please see our Facebook or LinkedIn page for more information or just click here: Community Give Back Video

Before 2020, and after 22 years at Morton Capital, I figured I had mostly seen it all in the financial markets.  Leave it to a pandemic to prove me wrong!  But, the one thing that remains constant for me is my love affair with alternative investments and how they help round out my investments and exposure to a world where there are never any guarantees what will be coming next.

MC Stories – The Value of Diversifying, as Learned on a Farm

You may have heard about diversifying later in life when you started to manage your investments. I learned the value of diversifying much earlier, on the farm.

I grew up on a family-run farm in Iowa where we worked hard and played hard, together as a team.

On the farm, I learned that there is a natural cycle to things, and you can’t fight Mother Nature. If it’s winter and there’s a snowstorm raging around outside — that is a very good time to stay sheltered inside where you can be snug and warm and maybe enjoy popcorn and games with the family. It’s a very bad time to try to plant crops or expect anything to grow. But during those stormy winter days when our crops could not produce, my family figured out another means to survive. We took care of our milk-producing livestock and our hens who laid eggs – both of which gave us a nice source of income through the winter months. Then, no matter how long and cold the winter might seem, and no matter how dead those barren trees looked outside we knew we would be provided for until the harvest came. And as long as those trees had good roots, there would be a new cycle of growth.

When you apply these lessons to investing, you realize that it’s important to have diversified assets with some investments providing steady income and others providing longer-term, larger growth. And, all assets have a natural cycle. So, like Mother Nature, you can’t fight the cycles but you can be grateful for the growth cycle and patient during the “winter” as you wait for that next cycle of renewal.