The Return of Trade Tensions
It’s hard to believe that it’s been over a year since President Trump launched us into a trade war with China. (We first delved into this issue in our second quarter 2018 client letter here.) While it appeared that progress was being made in negotiations toward the end of 2018, the recent breakdown in trade talks and escalation in tensions once again has this topic dominating news cycles.
As a quick reminder, a tariff is a tax specifically related to imports and exports that encourages consumers to buy less of the taxed good (whose price has now risen) and more of a cheaper, untaxed alternative. Effectively, a government imposes tariffs to try and benefit domestic producers by making imported goods relatively more expensive. There is much debate, however, regarding whether or not domestic producers truly benefit—for example, U.S. farmers are actually among those most likely to suffer from the tariffs imposed to date.
Why are tariffs and the ominous-sounding trade war such big news? From all the hubbub, you might expect this to be a disaster for economic growth. The reality, however, is that the broad economy isn’t expected to take a big hit, even if the situation continues to escalate. Capital Economics estimates that the drag on the U.S. and China’s gross domestic product (GDP) will be minimal: around 0.4% for China, and 0.1-0.2% for the U.S. The effects, however, may be harsher on confidence and on financial markets. The uncertainty surrounding the tariffs and the lack of visibility regarding future escalations may cause businesses worldwide to limit investments and encourage consumers to become more cautious with their spending.
Free trade has been a major boost to global growth over the last several decades, with exports accounting for roughly 23% of the global GDP. Protectionist policies in the U.S. and abroad may threaten global growth going forward. Still, as precarious as the situation sounds, it’s only one of many uncertainties facing markets going forward. It’s important for investors to remain disciplined in their approach and stick to their financial plans, even when news cycles get a little feisty.
Welcome Olivia and Elana
Olivia Payne, Client Service Administrator
Olivia joined Morton Capital in April 2019. She brings with her 7 years of customer service experience in retail and social services. Olivia is originally from Georgia, where she attended the University of Georgia and obtained her degree in human development and family science. She is passionate about helping people make choices to improve their lives and learning as much as she can along the way. Olivia enjoys traveling and experiencing the different ways in which other cultures choose to enjoy life.
Elana Yaffe, Paraplanner
Elana Yaffe joined Morton Capital in February 2019 as a Paraplanner, where she collaborates with the advisory team to analyze and prepare financial plans. Prior to Morton Capital, she worked at Merrill Lynch as a seasonal client associate and at American Financial Network as a Paraplanner. Elana graduated with a degree in retailing and consumer sciences from the University of Arizona. She loves to travel, watch sports, and play with animals, especially with her shihtzu, Brandy, and boxer, Sunshine.
Say Hello to Audriana Rex!
Kevin Rex, one of our Lead Wealth Advisors, and his wife, Nicole, welcomed their third child, Audriana, on April 12, a beautiful and healthy baby girl. A big congratulations to their growing family!
Best Places to Work for Financial Advisors Award
We are proud to announce we were named one of the Best Places to Work for Financial Advisors by InvestmentNews. This list highlights the top 75 firms nationwide in the financial advice industry. We were chosen 2nd among firms our size and 16th overall for our commitment to creating a firm culture that encourages idea-sharing and empowers employees to get the most life out of their career. Thank you to our amazing team for making Morton Capital a great place to work every day.
Read the full article by Investment News here
Be Careful Out There: Cybersecurity Tips
By Eric Selter, Chief Compliance Officer
As Elmer Fudd would say: “You should be vewy, vewy afwaid.”
Cybersecurity is a huge topic today. And it should be. The fraudsters are smart and persistent. If they put half as much time into doing good things as they do thinking up ways to steal your information, the world would be a much better place.
Recently, the Morton Capital team sat in on a cybersecurity seminar. Here are some important takeaways that we wanted to share:
* Your data is out there. Don’t think it’s not! Fraudsters can easily buy your personal data on the dark web. Have you ever used Yelp? Believe it or not, there are Yelp ratings for fraudsters on the dark web—that’s how prevalent it has become. Features like two-factor authentication, DocuSign, secure email links and other advanced security tools are useful in helping to prevent some of the more basic security breaches.
* It’s not just you they’re after. While individuals continue to be targets, the fraudsters are now coming after businesses too in order to mine the data they collect from their clients. Have you heard the financial expression, “Cash is king?” Now, data is KING!
* Prevention is key! Some debate the value of credit protection and monitoring services, but any potential alert that someone has opened an account in your name could help you nip fraud in the bud. One example of how to protect yourself: go to your mobile carrier’s website and change your settings so that any call forwarding must be done from your phone and not via their website, which can be hacked.A typical scheme that cybersecurity firms often see, which illustrates the depth of the potential fraud, goes like this: Fraudsters hack your email and see you’re in the process of buying a house (who doesn’t have dozens of emails back and forth with their realtor or escrow officer?). Since they can tell you’ve already warned us that you’ll need some cash for the closing, they send us an email that provides wire instructions to a fake account. Without verbal verification on both sides (you verbally verifying the escrow wire instructions with a trusted escrow officer; us verbally confirming the information with you), money can easily be lost forever.
To safeguard our clients against this common type of fraud, Morton Capital will continue to verbally verify and confirm all new money transfer requests. We know this extra step may be a hassle, but it’s for all of our protection. It’s better to spend some time up front preventing transfer fraud than trying to recover funds after they’ve transferred out. At the risk of dating myself, I’ll end with the line that Captain Esterhaus from Hill Street Blues would say at the start of every shift: LET’S BE CAREFUL OUT THERE!